PDRI/World Bank Report Brief 1: Refugees and Other Forcibly Displaced Populations

Overview

This report synthesizes over a decade of experimental and quasi-experimental research to understand the dual challenge of forced displacement: its impacts on host communities and the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at fostering integration and stability. Drawing on approximately 250 rigorously designed studies conducted between 2010 and 2024, the authors systematically review what we know—and what remains uncertain—about the dynamics of large-scale displacement in both high-income and low- and middle-income countries.

The review is timely: with over 120 million people displaced globally as of 2024, the scale, persistence, and complexity of forced migration have made it a defining feature of global governance. Humanitarian models premised on temporary displacement are increasingly insufficient. This brief underscores the need for sustainable, development-linked responses grounded in empirical evidence.

Key Findings

1. Impacts on Host Communities

• Labor Markets: Inflows of displaced populations typically have neutral to modestly positive effects on native employment and wages. However, vulnerable groups—especially informal workers, women, and youth- may face short-term displacement in the labor market.

• Public Services: Initial strain on education and health systems is well documented, yet these pressures dissipate when governments expand services inclusively.

• Political Dynamics: In high-income settings, refugee inflows can shift public opinion toward anti-immigration parties; in lower-income contexts, impacts are more heterogeneous and often mediated by the quality of service delivery.

• Social Cohesion: Community attitudes depend on perceived competition, cultural distance, and aid structure. Programs that exclude hosts often generate resentment; inclusive models mitigate tension.

2. Effectiveness of Policy Interventions

• Cash Transfers: Short-term gains in consumption, school attendance, and psychological health are strongest when transfers are paired with self-reliance programming. Effects fade without complementary interventions.

• Labor Market Access: Granting refugees the right to work is among the most effective policies, improving incomes, reducing reliance on aid, and strengthening mental health, with no observed harm to host workers.

• Mental Health: Addressing trauma is foundational. Poor mental health directly reduces employment outcomes and integration success.

• Social Cohesion Strategies: School-based bias reduction, framing aid as a shared benefit, and empathy-driven media campaigns all show promise. Effects vary across context and design.

• Aid Design: Evidence from Uganda, Lebanon, and Colombia shows that joint benefit models targeting refugees and hosts improve outcomes and reduce backlash.

Policy Implications

The evidence points to four pillars for effective policy:

1. Integrate Humanitarian and Development Responses
   Combine short-term relief with investments in skills, livelihoods, and legal inclusion.

2. Close the Implementation Gap
   Ensure policies are translated into practice by addressing bureaucratic barriers and engaging local stakeholders.

3. Prioritize Mental Health and Social Cohesion
   Integrate trauma care and prejudice-reduction into broader integration strategies.

4. Design for Context
   Effective programs are not one-size-fits-all. Tailor interventions to local economic, political, and institutional realities.

Conclusion

This body of work affirms the feasibility and urgency of shifting from reactive humanitarianism to evidence-based, development-oriented models of refugee support. Countries like Colombia, Uganda, and Kenya illustrate the promise of inclusive frameworks that grant displaced populations meaningful agency while maintaining host community resilience.

The brief also identifies future research priorities, including the long-term effects on origin communities, policy effectiveness for IDPs and returnees, and the gendered dimensions of displacement. As forced migration becomes a defining global challenge, robust causal evidence must anchor our collective response.

Citation:

Sandra Rozo; Grossman,Guy. Refugees and Other Forcibly Displaced Populations (English). Policy Research Working Paper;People Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099301105192515441