PDRI-DevLab is hosting a Fall 2023 Seminar Series featuring its staff and affiliates.

Topic: Why Economic Sanctions Backfire

Presenter: Nicolas Idrobo

Session Details: Economic sanctions are often imposed to bring about regime change or induce policy changes (e.g., deterring military intervention). In Iraq, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Chile, and Russia, for example, economic sanctions were meant to starve the ruling regime of resources and foment protests and unrest. Critics posit that such sanctions are ineffective and may even backfire by creating a rally-around-the-flag effect. I argue that this debate misses a fundamental pitfall of economic sanctions as tools of regime change: the cost of sanctions falls disproportionately on vulnerable populations, which have to emigrate; sanctions, then, not only restore but can even increase the strength of the regime. If those who emigrate are mostly politically opposed to the regime. mass emigration in the wake of economic sanctions can dramatically alter the composition of the population. Sanctions, in other words, give the regime a long-term lifeline, precisely the opposite of the intended effect. I provide qualitative evidence of the effects of sanctions on Cuba and quantitative evidence from the recent sanctions placed on Venezuela.

This session will be a seminar-style presentation of 40 minutes followed by Q&A of 20 minutes. Participants are not required to read a paper beforehand.

For more information, reach out to pdri-devlab@sas.upenn.edu