Strengthening State Legitimacy through Refugee Aid Integration: Evidence from Uganda

The policy brief was prepared by Simranjeet Dhir (University of Pennsylvania). It highlights findings from the manuscript “Liberalizing Refugee Hosting Policies without Losing the Vote,” authored by Yang-Yang Zhou, Naijia Liu, Shuning Ge, and Guy Grossman. The study examines how integrating refugee aid into government systems, alongside compensation for host communities, can reduce political backlash and strengthen state legitimacy, drawing on electoral and administrative evidence from Uganda.

Key Takeaways

• Inclusive refugee policies did not trigger political backlash when host communities were compensated:
  Despite a five-fold increase in refugee populations, electoral support for the incumbent government remained stable or improved in refugee-hosting areas after compensation policies were introduced.
• Compensation schemes strengthened public services and political legitimacy: Directing approximately 30% of refugee aid to host communities improved access to schools, health facilities, and infrastructure, increasing citizen approval of government performance.
• Integrating refugee aid into national systems enhanced state visibility and credibility: Aligning humanitarian aid with local government institutions improved accountability and helped reinforce trust in state institutions.
• Political narratives and elite messaging helped sustain public support: Government leaders framed refugee inclusion as beneficial for development and humanitarian progress, making anti-refugee mobilization less politically viable.
• Proactive integration policies can deliver both political and development benefits: Strategic aid integration enabled Uganda to expand refugee rights while maintaining political stability and strengthening governance.

Introduction

With global displacement reaching unprecedented levels, governments face difficult choices about whether to adopt inclusive refugee policies that allow displaced populations to work, move freely, and access public services. While such policies can generate economic and development benefits, governments often fear political backlash from host communities.

This brief summarizes evidence from Uganda, Africa’s largest refugee-hosting country, demonstrating how integrating refugee aid into government systems and compensating host communities can mitigate political risks while strengthening state legitimacy.

The Challenge

Governments are often hesitant to adopt inclusive refugee policies because:

• Host communities may perceive refugees as competing for jobs, services, and resources.
• Refugee aid delivered outside government systems can weaken state legitimacy.
• Political actors may mobilize public opposition to refugee inclusion.

Without careful policy design, refugee hosting can generate political tensions and undermine trust in government institutions.

Approach

The study analyzes the political and governance effects of refugee policy reforms in Uganda between 2001 and 2021, using:

• Electoral data from 5,167 Ugandan parishes across five national elections,
• Refugee population data from UNHCR,
• A difference-in-differences design comparing areas with different levels of refugee exposure,
• Survey data, infrastructure indicators, and public discourse analysis to understand underlying mechanisms.

This approach allows researchers to isolate the causal impact of refugee aid integration policies on political outcomes and public opinion.

Findings

• No electoral backlash following refugee integration reforms:
  After compensation policies were introduced, refugee-hosting areas did not experience political losses for the incumbent government, despite large refugee inflows.
• Improved public goods increased citizen support for government:
  Investments in education, health, and infrastructure visibly benefited host communities, leading citizens to credit the government for these improvements.
• Political messaging reinforced positive perceptions:
  Government and media narratives framed refugee inclusion as beneficial for national development, reducing opposition incentives.
• Aid integration strengthened local governance:
  Redirecting aid through government institutions enhanced state legitimacy and accountability.

Policy Implications

• Integrate humanitarian aid into government systems:
  Channel refugee aid through national and local government institutions to strengthen state capacity and legitimacy.
• Ensure host communities receive visible benefits:
  Allocate a share of refugee aid to improving public services for host populations to reduce perceived competition.
• Adopt anticipatory and data-driven refugee planning:
  Use predictive tools and proactive planning to prepare host regions before refugee inflows increase.
• Promote economic inclusion for refugees:
  Allow refugees to work and participate in local economies, benefiting both refugees and host communities.
• Shape positive public narratives around refugee inclusion:
  Communicate the development and economic benefits of refugee integration to sustain public support.

Conclusion

Uganda’s experience demonstrates that inclusive refugee policies can be politically sustainable when paired with strategic compensation and institutional integration. Rather than weakening state authority, refugee aid integration strengthened public trust, improved public services, and enhanced political legitimacy.

As global displacement continues to rise, governments can adopt similar strategies to transform refugee hosting from a perceived political risk into an opportunity for strengthening governance and development.

Acknowledgments

This policy brief is based on research by Yang-Yang Zhou, Naijia Liu, Shuning Ge, and Guy Grossman, and was prepared under the leadership of PDRI-DevLab to advance research-to-policy translation and support evidence-based policymaking.