By comparing levels of RAI activity across countries, we identified the relative influence of Russia and China across countries, showing that Russia’s influence has historically been concentrated on its neighbors, while China’s influence has had a more global reach. However, these geographic spheres of influence have shifted over time, and coverage of Russian influence now rivals that of China in many places, effectively eroding China’s dominance in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa.

We also used our data to analyze the volume of reporting on the specific tools that Russia and China use to influence other countries.  For both Russia and China, tools related to the use of economic influence have been the dominant tool reported on in the vast majority of countries. However, this dominance has decreased in recent years, with the use of diplomacy becoming the most frequently reported influence event in many places.

Finally, we see evidence for a large increase in reporting on RAI events for both Russian and Chinese beginning in 2022. The increase in activity is larger for Russia, and is driven by increased use if diplomacy concentrated in countries where their previous levels of activity were relatively low. Importantly, this increase in influence began in January, just one month before the invasion of Ukraine in February. This may indicate Russia’s use of diplomacy to court allies and mitigate international backlash.

See Policy Brief and publications below for more detailed information